Ever feel pressure to “protect your hand” when the dealer shows an Ace? That offer is called blackjack insurance. It sounds smart—who doesn’t want protection? But the math often tells a different story.

In this guide, you’ll learn exactly how insurance works, the true odds behind it, and a simple checklist to decide in seconds. You’ll also see a real story from the felt and expert tips you can use today.

Bottom line up front: Insurance pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack, but the chance of that happening is usually below the break-even point. For most players, it’s a long-term losing play.

What Is Blackjack Insurance?

Insurance is a separate wager offered when the dealer’s upcard is an Ace. You can bet up to half your original stake. If the dealer’s hidden card is a 10-value, the dealer has blackjack and your insurance bet pays 2:1.

How It Works (Step-by-Step)

  1. Initial deal: You and the dealer receive two cards; the dealer shows an Ace.
  2. The dealer offers insurance—this is a side bet up to half your original wager.
  3. The dealer peeks for blackjack.
  4. If the dealer has blackjack: insurance pays 2:1; your main hand usually loses (unless you also have blackjack).
  5. If not: you lose the insurance bet and continue the hand as usual.

Quick Facts

  • When offered: Only with a dealer Ace showing.
  • Payout: 2:1 on the insurance wager.
  • Cost: Up to 50% of your original bet.
  • Break-even chance needed: 33.33% (1 in 3).

Blackjack Insurance Odds Analysis: Should You Take It?

The core question is simple: how likely is the dealer’s hole card to be a 10-value? If that chance is above 33.33%, insurance is profitable. If it’s below, it’s not.

The Math in Plain English

  • In most multi-deck games, the chance the hole card is a 10-value with an Ace showing is about 30.8%.
  • Break-even is 33.33%. That gap creates a house edge on insurance.
Example (6-deck game): After the dealer shows an Ace, roughly 96 of the remaining 311 cards are 10-value.
Probability ≈ 96/311 ≈ 30.9%.
Expected value (EV) per $1 insurance bet: EV = 3p − 1 = 3×0.309 − 1 ≈ −0.073 → about −7.3%.
Translation: For every $100 bet on insurance, you lose about $7.30 long-term.

Single-deck can be slightly better, but still negative for most players who aren’t tracking cards. Even with one deck, the probability is usually below the 33.33% threshold.

What About Card Counting?

Counting changes your estimate of how many 10s remain. Many Hi-Lo players use a rule of thumb: take insurance when the true count is +3 or higher. Below that, skip it. If you’re not counting, assume insurance is a losing bet.

Real-Life Table Story: “Learning to Say No”

On a busy Saturday in Las Vegas, I sat next to a friendly tourist betting $25 a hand. Each time the dealer showed an Ace, he tossed out a $10 insurance chip. Over an hour, insurance came up eight times. The dealer had blackjack twice.

His insurance results: +$20 twice, −$10 six times. Net: −$20 on insurance alone—despite two “wins.” He said it felt safer, but the math chipped away at his stack. After we talked through the numbers, he skipped insurance the rest of the night and saw his bankroll last much longer.

When (If Ever) Does Insurance Make Sense?

  • You are an advanced counter and your system indicates a high density of 10s (e.g., Hi-Lo true count ≥ +3).
  • You’re playing in rare rule sets or side conditions where the 10-density is proven to be above one-third.
Even Money Reminder: If you have blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, the “even money” offer is just insurance by another name. Taking even money is mathematically identical to insuring your blackjack. Without counting, it’s still a negative-EV choice.

How to Decide at the Table: A Practical Checklist

  1. Is the dealer showing an Ace? If not, insurance isn’t available.
  2. Are you counting cards? If no, skip insurance.
  3. If yes, check your index: take insurance only when your count says the 10-density exceeds one-third.
  4. Separate the main hand from the insurance decision. A strong hand doesn’t make insurance better.
  5. Stay consistent. Don’t let one win or loss sway your process.

Common Myths About Blackjack Insurance

  • Myth: “I should protect my good hands.” Truth: Insurance only bets on the dealer’s hole card, not your hand strength.
  • Myth: “Even money is safer.” Truth: It’s the same as insurance—usually negative EV unless you’re counting.
  • Myth: “I’ve seen a lot of small cards; insurance must be good now.” Truth: Without precise tracking, you can’t know the true odds.

Responsible, Expert Tips for Long-Term Success

  • Use a basic strategy chart for your main decisions. It lowers the house edge.
  • Avoid habitual insurance. It drains your bankroll over time.
  • Bankroll rule of thumb: keep your average bet under 1–2% of your bankroll to manage swings.
  • If you want to learn counting, practice at home and start with low stakes.

Conclusion

For most players, blackjack insurance is a bad deal. The chance the dealer has blackjack is usually below one in three, while the bet pays as if it were one in three. Unless you’re a skilled counter with a verified edge, say “no thanks.”

FAQs

What is blackjack insurance and how does it work?

Insurance is a separate bet offered when the dealer shows an Ace. You can wager up to half your original bet. If the hole card is a 10-value (dealer has blackjack), insurance pays 2:1; if not, you lose that side bet and continue the hand.

Is insurance a good bet in blackjack?

Usually no. The chance of a dealer blackjack is typically around 30–31%, but you need 33.33% to break even on a 2:1 payout. That gap creates a house edge against the insurance bet.

Is even money different from insurance?

No. If you have blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, “even money” is mathematically identical to taking insurance. Without counting, it’s still negative EV.

When should a card counter take insurance?

When the count indicates a high density of 10s—commonly a Hi-Lo true count of +3 or higher. Below that, skip it.

Does the number of decks change insurance odds?

Yes, slightly. Single-deck insurance is a bit closer to break-even than multi-deck, but it’s still negative EV for non-counters. Deck count alone doesn’t make it profitable.